Abraham, reply rates peak now, crater after Thanksgiving
One sender's read on seasonality across his own book of business, not an industry dataset.
Nick Abraham says reply rate and positive reply rate have both jumped in the last two weeks across roughly 500K cold emails, and he is telling senders to expect that lift to hold until Thanksgiving.
His explanation is seasonal rather than technical. Summer is over, kids are back in school, and in his words people are locking in for Q4, which he says makes them more receptive to getting on calls. That is the mechanism he offers. There is no deliverability change, no inbox provider shift, no copy test behind the number.
Summer is over, kids are back in school, and people are locking in for Q4.
The calendar he posted
Abraham breaks the rest of the year into three blocks. Now through Thanksgiving is, by his account, the highest period of the year for reply rate and positive reply rate. Thanksgiving through New Year is the reverse, among the lowest reply rates of the year. Then Q1 2027 picks back up because, he says, new budgets unlock.
That is the whole claim. He frames it as "based on our experience," which is the honest framing and the right one to hold on to.
What the number is and is not
Roughly 500K cold emails is a real volume, but it is one operator's book of business, sent to his own ICPs with his own copy and his own infrastructure. He gives a direction of travel, not a baseline. There is no before and after percentage in the post, no breakdown by industry, and no indication of how the 500K splits across clients or campaigns. So the useful read is relative, his accounts moved up over the last fortnight, not that yours will move the same amount.
For people sending, the practical version of this is scheduling rather than strategy. If you believe the curve, the decision it changes is when you spend list budget and warmed capacity, front-loading volume into the next few weeks rather than pushing a big push into December. Abraham has argued before that volume beats restraint, and this post is consistent with that, use the window while it is open.
The counterweight is obvious and worth saying. A seasonal dip in replies looks identical, from inside a dashboard, to a deliverability problem you caused. If your numbers fall in December, check placement before you rewrite the offer, and check it against the same period last year if you have the data. One sender's seasonal curve is not a diagnosis for yours.
Know what is landing before you burn another domain
One email a day. Under three minutes. What the operators found out yesterday.